Lesson 3: The Logic Explored (Example)

The science behind this whole process!

Consider a bookmaker offering a promotion: a free £10 bet upon placing a £10 bet on any event. For simplicity, let's use a coin toss with two outcomes, heads or tails, each equally likely (50/50).

If you wager £10 on both heads and tails, you break even regardless of the outcome, meeting the criteria for the free £10 bet without risk. The table below depicts the scenario:

£10 on heads/£10 on tails outcome =

• If heads wins + £10 – £10 (loss on tails).

• If tails wins – £10 loss on heads + £10 (win on tails).

Despite breaking even, you qualify for the free bet by placing the required £10 bet.

To lock in a profit, repeat the process using the free bet and a £5 bet on the opposing outcome. The table below demonstrates this strategy:

£10 free bet on heads/£5 on tails outcome =

• If heads wins + £10 – £5 (loss on tails) = £5 profit!

• If tails wins + £5 - £0 (loss on heads free bet) = £5 profit!

Utilising a calculator helps determine the optimal £5 stake for equal profits regardless of the outcome. In practical matched betting, you can often extract around 80% of the free bet value. For instance, with a £10 free bet, you might make approximately £8 profit.

Congratulations! You've grasped the fundamental concept of matched betting. While events with more outcomes or varied odds may require adjustments, the basic principle remains consistent.