How to Win Paddy's "Beat The Drop" Game, Profit Calculator & Strategy
Table of Contents
What Is ‘Beat The Drop’?
Beat The Drop is Paddy Power's daily free-to-play game where you have the chance to win either:
£5 pot by answering 5 questions correctly, or
£5,000 pot by answering 15 questions correctly.
For each question, you're presented with a simple Yes or No option. You must decide which side to place your pot of money on. If you answer correctly, your pot carries forward to the next question. If you're unsure, you can split your pot between Yes and No to hedge your bets.
The Bias Behind "Yes" — And Why You Should Be Careful
Studies in behavioural science show that people tend to be biased towards selecting Yes. This happens because humans naturally assume that an event is more likely to occur than not — it feels more exciting and positive to bet on something happening. Paddy Power understands this bias very well and often frames questions in a way where "Yes" seems appealing — but statistically, it might have a lower chance of winning. For this reason, blindly favouring "Yes" can lead to poor value decisions over the long run. You need to think in terms of probability and expected value (EV) rather than emotion.
Expected Value (EV) — How It Works
Let's explain EV with a simple example:
Imagine flipping a fair coin. You have a 50% chance of landing heads and a 50% chance of landing tails.
If someone said they’ll give you £1 if you guess heads correctly, the average amount you’d expect to win (your EV, or Expected Value) would be:
EV for heads = (50% × £1) + (50% × £0) = £0.50
EV for tails = (50% × £1) + (50% × £0) = £0.50
In other words, on average you'd win 50p each time you play.
In Beat The Drop, the questions aren’t usually 50/50 — even if they seem simple — so your chances of winning can be much higher or lower than half.
Example:
"Will there be 4 or more goals in the match?" At first glance, you might think it's a toss-up. However, if you check the betting exchanges (like Betfair), you can see the real implied probability.
How to Work Out the True Probability
Formula:
Probability= (1/Odds)*100=Percentage Probability
For example:
If the odds for Over 3.5 goals are 2.4, the probability is:
Probability= (1/2.4)*100=41.67% Probability
Similarly, if the odds for Under 3.5 goals are 1.77:
Probability= (1/1.77)*100=56.5% Probability
Important: The probabilities for Yes and No should always add up to roughly 1 (or 100%). If they don't, it’s usually due to the bookmaker’s margin built into the odds, this will inturn affect your probability slightly.
Why Use a Betting Exchange?
Betting exchanges like Betfair or Smarkets are peer-to-peer — meaning you bet against other players, not the bookmaker. This leads to more accurate, lower-margin odds, giving you the true market probability. Always check the latest exchange prices before locking in your Beat The Drop answer. If you don't like the current options on Beat The Drop, you can wait for a better question with higher EV to pop up.
Should You Always Split?
Splitting your pot can be very smart when you’re unsure and when the market shows the event is very close to 50/50. If the market odds are more lopsided, you might choose to heavily favour one side — or even go all in on the statistically stronger side. You can also take a middle ground by using the last traded price on an exchange if the market has low liquidity.
Check Your EV Calculator
Here's a simple Expected Value (EV) calculator, it helps you work out whether Yes or No offers better value.
EV Calculator (Exchange Odds)
Payout Calculator
Here’s a Payout Calcutor, it helps you work out how much you’ll take home when splitting your pot 50/50 at a certain point.
Beat the Drop - Split Pot Calculator
Key Tips To Win Beat The Drop
Understand the psychological bias towards choosing "Yes".
Always check betting exchange odds for the true probabilities.
Use the EV formula to guide your decisions.
Wait for questions with better expected value if you're unsure.
Split only when the market suggests a true 50/50 — or when you're very unsure.
Track your pot using a calculator as you progress.
